The West’s strategy of imposing harsh economic sanctions on Russia creates a paradox that will hang over the Trump-Putin summit: does the pain encourage a genuine desire for peace, or does it breed a defiant resolve to resist?
The theory behind the sanctions, such as the newly lowered oil price cap, is that by crippling Russia’s economy, the Kremlin will be forced to abandon its costly war in Ukraine. In this view, economic pain is a direct lever for peace, weakening Putin’s hand ahead of the Alaska talks.
However, the opposite effect is also possible. History has shown that sanctioned nations can often rally around a nationalist, defiant narrative, blaming external enemies for their economic woes. Putin could use the sanctions to justify the war to his domestic audience, arguing that Russia is under siege and must fight back.
This paradox makes the outcome of the summit difficult to predict. Trump is arriving with the leverage of sanctions, but it is unclear if that leverage translates into a more compliant Putin or a more intransigent one. The Russian leader’s response will be a key indicator of whether the sanctions are working as intended.