A new poll indicates that a majority of Australians expect China to assume the mantle of the world’s most powerful nation by 2035, while simultaneously expressing a significant decline in their trust in the United States. This shifting sentiment marks a critical juncture in Australia’s perception of global leadership.
The survey found that only 36% of Australians trust the US to act responsibly on the world stage, representing a steep 20-point drop from the previous year and the lowest figure recorded since the think tank’s polling began in 2005. Confidence in the current US President’s foreign policy approach is particularly low, contrasting sharply with the trust placed in his predecessor. In a notable development, trust in the Chinese leader modestly increased, resulting in an even split regarding the reliability of the two leaders.
For the first time in five years, Australians are equally likely to view China as an economic partner as they are a security threat. Nevertheless, a considerable portion of the electorate remains distrustful of China, anticipating it will become a military threat to Australia within the next two decades. Despite the erosion of trust in the US, a majority (63%) still anticipates US intervention in Australia’s defense if attacked, though this figure has decreased.
The persistent support for the military alliance with the US, even amidst plummeting trust in its current leadership, suggests a public that distinguishes between the perceived unpredictability of current foreign policy and the foundational strength of the alliance itself. The dramatic halving of the trust gap between the US and China is a significant indicator of changing regional geopolitical alignments.